Navigating InfluenSea: The Future of Influencers in South Africa
The following article is based on the dissertation Influence of Infulencers: Future scenarios of South African Instagram Influencers in 2033 by Tasnim Alli.
Futures thinking is grounded in questions and thoughts around getting the root of current situations and vision of the future. By thinking through the potential, possible, probably and crafting the preferable future that we want to build.
My approach to my reserach began with asking myself, what will the future of social media look like?
Social media is no longer just a platform for sharing holiday snaps or reconnecting with old friends. It has become a powerful mirror, reflecting societal values and sparking global conversations. At the heart of this digital revolution is influencer marketing — a phenomenon that has evolved from a niche strategy into a critical driver of the global economy.
South Africa
Findings indicated that South Africa’s internet and social media usage has been on a steady upward trajectory since it was first introduced, with no signs of slowing down.
The research highlighted how the growing youth population, combined with a high youth unemployment rate, creates opportunities for social media to be used in innovative ways by businesses and users alike.
The Rise and Reign of Influencers
The study revealed that influencers have become key players in shaping digital influence.
They wield the power of parasocial relationships — seemingly intimate, one-sided connections that they establish with their followers. This dynamic, researchers note, drives trust, loyalty, and purchasing decisions. Brands increasingly recognise that influencers do more than sell products; they shape lifestyles and perceptions.
However, the research also showed that attention, which is now considered a form of currency, is not without its challenges. The spotlight on influencers is a double-edged sword, bringing both admiration and criticism. However, businesses recognise the value of partnering with influencers, understanding that a well-planned collaboration can successfully tap into previously untapped markets.
Instagram: The Influencer’s Playground
Insights from the research suggested that Instagram remains a dominant platform for influencers, primarily because of its visual appeal. It provides the perfect space for influencers to craft narratives of the ideal life.
However, the research highlights a shift driven by Gen Z, who demand authenticity and raw, unfiltered content over curated perfection.
The findings also showed that this shift is reshaping influencers’ careers. Influencers are no longer just promoters; they are diversifying into entrepreneurship — launching their own brands and offering digital services. Despite these advancements, the perception persists that influencing is not a “real job,” a challenge that many influencers still face.
Four Seas
Summary 2x2 Scenario Matrix
The result of the reserach which is based on the futures-thinking approach explored where influencer and business relationships might go in the next 10 years. Based on the 5-GDI framework, four possible scenarios were identified:
Summary 2x2 Scenario Matrix
1. Choppy Seas: A turbulent market where mismatched partnerships erode trust and result in poor returns on investment.
2. Rough Seas: Marketing dominated by AI, but the absence of human authenticity alienates audiences.
3. Still Seas: Businesses and influencers fail to innovate, leading to stagnation.
4. Steady Seas: The most desirable outcome — AI supports human creativity, influencing is legitimised as a career, and both influencers and businesses work together to drive economic growth.
Building a Resilient Influencer Economy
The research emphasised the importance of strategic collaboration in building a sustainable influencer economy.
Influencers need to focus on their long-term goals, ensuring their personal brands evolve in a way that is both sustainable and adaptable.
Businesses, on the other hand, should prioritise partnerships with influencers who genuinely align with their values. Together, these efforts could create a dynamic influencer economy that offers South Africa’s youth new economic opportunities.
The findings also suggests the South African government could play a role in formalising influencing as a career, unlocking new avenues for economic growth. However, adaptability remains crucial.
The research indicates that if platforms like Instagram were to fall out of favour, (rise of TikTok & other competitors), an influencer’s ability to pivot to new platforms would ultimately determine their survival.
Influencing the Future
The reserach concludes that influencers shape how we see the world and the products we buy. The research also emphasizes that Instagram, the platform that argubly coined the term ‘influencer’, must evolve to meet changing audience expectations. For influencers and businesses, the future is full of potential, but success will depend on their willingness to innovate and adapt.
The future of influencing, according to the research, is not just about survival — it is about thriving in an ever-changing digital landscape. By taking control of their narratives and forging meaningful partnerships, influencers can create a preferrable future for themselves. Turning their work into a stable, respected career. In doing so, they will not only secure their own futures but also play a key role in driving South Africa’s economy and unlocking the potential of its youth.
Article first published on Medium.
Reference
Alli, T. 2023. Influence of Influencers: Future scenarios of South African Instagram Influencers in 2033. Stellenbosch Business School. Unpublished.
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